Events unfolding in Egypt on February 11th have been welcomed all over the world as they should be. The young, but leaderless, people of Egypt have demanded a true democratic form of government with all the freedoms that other nations, embracing this form of governance, enjoy. Having lived for thirty years under the heel of dictatorial rule they deserve it as do all the other peoples of the region. However, once the euphoria of Mubarak’s departure has died down the real process in this regard will begin to unfold and it is not a given that real democracy will replace the fallen rule of the Mubarak regime. Waiting in the wings, as we all know, are jihadist Islamic groups that want to seize power and move the wider region toward their goal and dream of a new Caliphate!
The Muslim Brotherhood are shrewd operators and will not immediately seize power. They will, for western political consumption, assume an influential role, and indeed a strong one, in the emerging Egyptian government. Thereafter, by a process of stealth and intrigue, they will slowly usurp power and steer the nation toward sharia law. All the while they will pursue and encourage a hostile relationship toward Israel. It is to be noted that while it was young people that called for democracy and spearheaded the revolution it is not to be taken for granted that they are well disposed toward Israel.
If the banners in Revolution Square say anything it was that Israel is as hated as Mubarak was!All of this has emboldened two groups:
First; the one that is looking for greater freedom in the Middle East in that young people all over the region in countries like Jordan, Syria, Yemen, Iran, the gulf states and elsewhere may attempt an Egyptian styled revolution. However, being without identifiable and proven leadership they will most likely win some concessions but in the end fail because these nations have watched and learned from what happened in Egypt and will no doubt use force immediately to put down a revolt.
The second group is the radical jihadist alliance, incorporating many factions but mainly Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaida, and of course the Muslim Brotherhood. These will ally themselves with Iran and already have and seek to take advantage of the present upheavals to strengthen and arm themselves and thereby prepare for war with Israel. They have already given notice of this! Truly the Middle East is on the brink of boiling over!
It is thus madness to expect Israel to push forward with a two state peace process and yet I hear the friends of Israel and even Israelis expressing this point of view. Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, is a weak ineffectual leader and his remaining sphere of influence could fall, at any time, to the hegemony and control of Hamas. For the so-called "friends of Israel" to get up, time and time again, to express support for a two state solution to the conflict is irresponsible. This politically correct game has to end and must end now! Maybe a few years ago it had a glimmer of hope but today it is not feasible by any stretch of the imagination and those who desire Israel’s best interests had better reassess their position.
The question then has to be asked,” In what way do we hope to stand by Israel?” If sanity is not brought to the table all our efforts at being an effective lobbying force on her behalf, in all forums, will fail and come to nothing. Events in the Middle East will “march on” without us.
In some respects the unfolding events in Egypt must then be seen in the light of what I call “The Turkish Principle.” Turkey, a long time ally of Israel, became more Islamic leaning as time went by. Erdogan, the present leader of that country, was once imprisoned for Islamic radicalism. His world-view was incompatible with being an ally of Israel and he thus needed an excuse to break this alliance and get out of it. The now infamous “Flotilla Incident” became his “legitimate” out and he used it to full advantage. Thereafter, and very quickly, he allied himself with Iran.
This principle is unfolding in the Lebanon and it will in Egypt, possibly Jordan and elsewhere. This then effectively “tightens the noose around” Israel and if she concedes more territory to a weak Holocaust denier like Mahmoud Abbas she will greatly endanger her security.
In the Middle East so far, as in Gaza, democratic elections consist of one man, one vote, one time! One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand the danger that Israel is in. Hamas is biding its time as all the events around it are serving its interests. A new government in Egypt will, most probably within a reasonable space of time, lift the blockade on Gaza for humanitarian reasons, of course, and arms from Iran will begin to flow again and the West Bank will be infiltrated and destabilized by radicals and probably already is!
In the Middle East so far, as in Gaza, democratic elections consist of one man, one vote, one time! One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand the danger that Israel is in. Hamas is biding its time as all the events around it are serving its interests. A new government in Egypt will, most probably within a reasonable space of time, lift the blockade on Gaza for humanitarian reasons, of course, and arms from Iran will begin to flow again and the West Bank will be infiltrated and destabilized by radicals and probably already is!
Only someone completely ignorant of the events on the ground will advocate a two state solution to the Israeli/Palestinian impasse’. The Middle East is changing rapidly and until the “fog has cleared” the oft quoted cliché’ of two democratic states living side-by-side in peace and security should be abandoned. It is an idea that now has no significance and those who “peddle” it in the name of being true friends of Israel should drop it.
It is also high time that the fear of God should take hold of us. Israel’s modern day restoration has happened against the tide of history because it enjoys biblical significance and God’s favor. The God of the Bible watches over Israel day and night and is deeply involved in her well being. Indeed He warns the world not to divide the land He bequeathed to Israel. To disregard this great purpose and warning of God is foolishness as we are dealing with His ancient people who have faced this exact type of conflict time and time again in their long journey spanning some four thousand years. Israel is the vehicle of world redemption and has given birth to a moral code that has made much of the world great and she has birthed and gifted to the world the greatest and most loved Man that ever lived.
We who claim to love her and stand by her should be careful, yes very careful, lest we find ourselves in conflict with the God of Heaven!
Malcolm Hedding
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